Retail Insights

15 July 2015

Outlook for inflation remains weak as CPI falls back down to zero in June

The Consumer Price Index CPI was zero in June, a marginal decline from 0.1 per cent in May. UK consumers are continuing to benefit from sustained period of low inflation. It has now been 18 months since inflation was above 2 per cent - the Bank of England''s target rate.

Falls in clothing -0.7 yy and food pric... read more

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06 July 2015

Consumer spending powers ahead in first quarter - but is retail being left behind?

Consumer spending continued to power ahead in the first quarter of 2015 rising by +0.9 per cent compared with the previous quarter a significant upward revision from the earlier estimate of +0.5 per cent. On an annual basis, this left annual spending up 3.4 per cent higher than last year.

The fastest growing... read more

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22 June 2015

Prospects for UK retail strong with 2.5 per cent rise in spending in May

Retail sales values non-seasonally adjusted rose by 2.5 per cent in May, according to the Office for National Statistics. The underlying strength of data as suggested by the three month on three month movement in the quantity bought, continued to show growth for the 27th consecutive month, increasing by 0.6 per cent.... read more

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16 June 2015

After a brief period of deflation, prices rise marginally in May but the outlook remains muted

After the briefest period of deflation, the UK economy crept back to inflationary territory in May as prices rose by 0.1 per cent compared with the same period last year. The largest upward contribution to the change came from transport services, notably air fares with the timing of Easter in April a likely factor in... read more

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14 June 2015

Seven reasons to be optimistic on the outlook of the UK retail sector

The outlook for households and consumer spending is the brightest in recent memory. An unexpected majority government, no inflation, rising real wages, record level of employment and rising household disposable income has boosted consumer confidence to levels last seen before the global financial crisis.
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03 June 2015

Review of the economic trends impacting the retail sector

UK GDP rose by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2015, compared with the previous quarter, completing nine consecutive periods of positive growth. Underlying momentum remains strong with the UK economy 2.4 per cent larger than this time last year and recent surveys suggesting these figures could well be revised upw... read more

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03 June 2015

Interactive Overview of the UK Retail Sector – June 2015

There is no doubt that the UK retail sector has turned a corner over the last two years. The long road to recovery since the global financial crisis is well underway.

This interactive story gives a glimpse of how far we have come and provides a succinct snap-shot of the key economic indicators which are vital to... read more

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29 May 2015

Retail sales momentum remains strong in April

Retail sales values non-seasonally adjusted rose by 0.8 per cent in April, according to the Office for National Statistics. The timing of Easter, falling in April last year against March this year, has distorted growth this month and so focusing on the three month rolling average is a better indication of underlying... read more

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20 May 2015

UK enters deflation - first time since 1960

The UK finally tipped into deflation in April, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics ONS. The Consumer Price Index fell from zero in March to -0.1 per cent in April, the first time the measure has been in negative territory since 1960.

Looking ahead, we believe deflation will b... read more

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07 May 2015

Boost in consumer confidence bodes well for the retail sector

Preliminary estimates for GDP in the first quarter of 2015 slowed to 0.3 per cent compared with the previous quarter, down from 0.5 per cent in the last quarter of 2014. While other surveys had indicated a weakening of GDP, the brakes on recovery were a little harsher than we had predicted. With the General Election... read more

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24 April 2015

Is the recovery in households' spending bypassing the retail sector?

Whilst the timing of an earlier Easter this year has made reading of retail sales more difficult this month, the latest set of data still offered encouraging signs that deflation in the high street and real income growth is supporting spending.

According to the ONS, retail sales showed robust growth in March as... read more

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14 April 2015

Inflation flatlines – although "technically" we are in deflationary times

UK inflation held at zero in March, matching the record low of the previous month. It could yet fall into deflationary territory but, irrespective of a negative number, we expect inflation to remain at subdued levels for the remainder of the year. “Technically”, given the unrounded inflationary figure at two decimal... read more

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07 April 2015

Retail sales slow in February but outlook still positive

Retail sales showed robust growth in February as positive economic fundamentals continue to underpin consumer spending and confidence. According to the ONS, retail sales were up by 5.1% (volume, exc. automotive fuel), the 23rd consecutive month of year-on-year growth and the longest period of sustained growth since Ma... read more

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25 March 2015

UK on the verge of deflation

The UK is on the verge of deflation with the latest data reporting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to zero in February. As we have indicated in previous reports we believe a brief period of deflation will be beneficial to the retail sector and the wider UK economy and will strong growth in real wages to feed thr... read more

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05 March 2015

Cocktail of falling inflation rising real incomes and robust economic growth tastes sweet on consumers palate

Consumer spending continued to support overall growth in the economy in the last quarter of 2014. The second estimate of GDP remained unchanged suggesting the economy grew by 0.5% with household spending accounting for 0.3 percentage points of this growth. Consequently annual growth for the UK remained at 2.6% which... read more

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