Retail Insights

04 March 2015

Falling inflation, rising real wages and consumers on a high

The second estimate of GDP remained unchanged suggesting the economy grew by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter. Consequently annual growth for the UK remained at 2.6% which rounded off an impressive year - the fastest growth of any G7 economy. We forecast the UK economy to grow by... read more

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22 February 2015

Retail sales momentum continues into 2015

Retail sales growth maintained strong underlying momentum in January with sales up by 2.6% on the previous year (values, non-seasonally adjusted). The underlying pattern in the rolling three-month on three-month (chart 1) movement in the quantity bought showed continued growth for the 23rd consecutive month, increasing... read more

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18 February 2015

Inflation falls to an all-time low. Are retailers rebuilding margins?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached a record low of 0.3% in January, edging down from 0.5% reported in the previous month. We expect inflation to continue to fall through the first half of 2015 as the impact of weaker oil prices feed through the supply chain. We now believe that a brief period of deflation will, mor... read more

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02 February 2015

UK Consumer: Stronger fundamentals underpin prospects for consumer spending in 2015

The UK economy continues to tread a path of sustainable growth with preliminary estimates suggesting output was up 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter. This rounds off an impressive year with economic growth of 2.6% in 2014 - the fastest growth of any G7 economy.

Chart 1: Eco... read more

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27 January 2015

UK Economic Overview: January 2015 - UK economy grows 0.5% in final quarter completing eight consecutive quarters of growth

UK Economic Overview
Preliminary estimates suggest that the economy grew by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter. This rounds off an impressive year with output up by 2.6% - the fastest growth of any G7 economy. We expect 2015 to show a modest improvement on the previous yea... read more

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25 January 2015

Summary: UK Retail Sales - December 2014

The latest data from the ONS suggests that the consumer recovery remained robust in the final quarter of 2014 and looking ahead, the prospects for 2015 appear encouraging. Retail sales in the final quarter grew at the fastest rate in 12 years with sales volumes up 2.3% compared with the previous quarter (see chart 1 be... read more

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19 January 2015

Retail’s Digital Transformation: Four themes at the heart of structural change in UK retail

The growth and adoption of digital and mobile technologies has transformed the way people shop - changing the retail landscape forever. Transparency in price, service and quality has never been more ubiquitous. The customer journey has become infinitely more complex to measure, predict and understand, while shoppers’ e... read more

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16 January 2015

BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor – December 2014: The impact of Black Friday on UK Retail Sales

The BRC reported its weakest level of growth for December since 2008 which, in our mind, confirms the distorting impact of Black Friday on the distribution of spending in the traditional Christmas sense. As we reported in our monthly Retail Sales Report (htt... read more

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14 January 2015

Summary: UK Retail Inflation January 2015 - Inflation falls to a 15 year low driven by falling petrol prices and cheaper food

Overview

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to a 15 year low of just 0.5% in December as falling petrol and food prices pushed down the overall rate of inflation.

The full impact of falling oil prices is yet to filter through the supply chain. Our view is that the possibility of overall deflation... read more

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08 January 2015

Outlook for the retail sector in 2015

NEW: OUTLOOK FOR UK RETAIL 2018. Our Outlook for UK Retail 2018 report is now available to download.

The outlook for retail spending in 2015 looks set to improve with the combinatio... read more

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07 January 2015

Structural changes in the retail grocery sector

The UK’s grocery sector is one of the most fiercely competitive areas in retail. In 2014, Retail Economics forecasts suggest total food sales will reach almost £150 billion. However, the sector is undergoing significant structural change.

At the heart of these structural changes

Rise of the disc... read more

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19 December 2014

Summary: UK Retail Sales December 2014 - “Black Friday boosts retail sales, but underlying conditions improving too”

Black Friday provided a significant boost to retail sales in November but underlying conditions are improving too. Stronger figures from both the ONS and BRC suggest that a robust labour market, real earnings growth and falling inflation are providing the right conditions for a boost in consumer spending in the crucial... read more

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17 December 2014

Summary: UK Retail Inflation December 2014

Overview
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to a 12 year low of just 1.0% in November as food deflation and the impact of lower oil prices drove down the overall rate. As we pointed out in November’s report, we feel that the CPI still has some way to fall given the weakness in oil prices and increased competition... read more

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03 December 2014

Summary of announcements made in the Autumn Statement that will impact the UK retail sector

Economic overview

The Chancellor, George Osbourne, revised up the growth projection for 2014 and 2015, but revised the profile down thereafter, delivering a more optimistic prognosis of economic growth and borrowing than many economists had expected. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts economic gro... read more

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21 November 2014

Summary UK Retail Sales November 2014

Below is our summary of UK retail sales for November 2014 within the Food and Drink, Clothing and Footwear, Household Goods, DIY and Gardening and Consumer Electronics categories.

Food and drink
The grocery sector continues to undergo significant structural change. Market share across the Big 4 Tesco, Morriso... read more

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