Retail Economics Response: GDP Monthly estimate July 2018

11 September 2018

UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% in the three months to July, picking up from the 0.4% growth in Q2 2018. This was the highest growth rate since August 2017 (on a three-month rolling basis), when it was also 0.6%.

It’s worth noting that the latest period is being compared with February, March and April where growth was weak/negative and therefore figures are being somewhat flattered.

UK GDP growth, Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016 until May to July 2018

Source: ONS

GDP growth over the period was driven by services and construction, while production made a negative contribution to the growth rate. Indeed, the services industry grew 0.6% in the three-months to July, driven by retail trade and wholesale trade.

Growth, three-months on previous three-months, August to October 2017 until May to July 2018

Source: ONS

Construction grew 3.3% in the three-months to July, the highest three-month growth since February 2017.

Production fell 0.5% in the three-months to July despite a strong performance in the mining and quarrying sub-component.